Beirut: Israel's rapidly escalating military offensive in Lebanon, framed as a campaign to eliminate Hezbollah, is raising fears that a ground invasion could spiral into a prolonged occupation, widespread displacement, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. Apprehensions have escalated after Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel could take control of large parts of southern Lebanon, indicating a potential long-term plan that has alarmed Lebanese officials.
According to Anadolu Agency, President Joseph Aoun has called the move 'a dangerous escalation and a blatant violation of Lebanese sovereignty,' suggesting it could be the prelude to a wider Israeli ground invasion. Analysts suggest that Israel has long sought an opportunity to escalate against Hezbollah, and the regional war with Iran has now provided it. Rob Geist Pinfold, an international security expert at King's College London, noted that previous restraint from Israel was largely due to US pressure, but Hezbollah's involvement in the Iran conflict has shifted that balance.
The conflict intensified after a cross-border missile attack by Hezbollah in early March, with Israel heavily bombing Lebanon and launching a ground offensive in the south. This escalation follows the joint US-Israeli offensive on Iran beginning on February 28, which has since expanded into a regional conflict. The ongoing concern is that Israel's campaign might be moving beyond immediate military aims toward a strategy that could redraw the realities on the ground in southern Lebanon.
David Wood, a senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes Israel has several objectives in a ground invasion, including seizing territory for leverage in negotiations and creating a security zone to keep Lebanese residents away from the border area. However, Wood warns that Israel might not stop at the Litani River and could potentially use it as a staging base to push further into Lebanon, which has caused alarm among analysts due to the potential for a sprawling occupation.
Lebanese authorities report that at least 1,029 people have been killed and 2,786 injured in Israeli attacks since March 2, with more than 1 million people displaced from various regions, including southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs. Analysts warn that a deeper invasion would significantly worsen the existing humanitarian crisis, with displaced civilians struggling to find shelter as host facilities become overcrowded.
While Israel maintains military superiority due to its intelligence capabilities and advanced technology, analysts like Wood argue that completely eliminating Hezbollah is a challenging goal. Hezbollah's survival is viewed as an existential fight, making it difficult for Israel to systematically destroy every military asset of the group. The failure to fully dismantle Hamas in Gaza after years of conflict highlights the challenges Israel faces in Lebanon.
Internationally, countries such as France, Germany, and Canada have urged Israel not to occupy southern Lebanon, emphasizing respect for Lebanese sovereignty. Human Rights Watch has warned that forcible displacement and attacks on civilians could constitute war crimes and risk complicity for countries providing military aid to Israel. Analysts suggest that any long-term occupation would likely clash with international frameworks, including UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
Despite these concerns, Israel is likely to continue its offensive, justifying its actions as self-defense. The duration of any occupation may ultimately be determined by the ongoing conflict on the ground, with analysts warning that the longer the war continues, the greater the risk of Lebanon being drawn into a conflict with no clear endpoint.