Washington: More than 9 million barrels per day of crude oil production from key Middle Eastern producers is expected to remain shut in April as the war in Iran continues to disrupt regional energy flows and roil global markets.

According to Anadolu Agency, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its April Short-Term Energy Outlook reported that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million barrels per day of crude production in March. The EIA projected that these outages would widen to 9.1 million barrels per day in April. The agency highlighted that limited oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were causing storage to fill quickly in countries dependent on the waterway for exports.

The EIA's forecast assumes the conflict might end by the end of April, which would ease production shut-ins to 6.7 million barrels per day in May. The report indicated that output from the affected producers would be expected to recover gradually and return near pre-conflict levels by late 2026.

Additionally, the EIA pointed to a stronger US supply response. It noted that higher crude prices led to expectations that US crude production would average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026 and rise to 13.8 million barrels per day in 2027. The 2027 forecast was revised up by about 0.5 million barrels per day from the previous month's outlook.

The agency also commented on Brent crude prices, noting that they averaged $103 per barrel in March and are expected to peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, before easing as shut-in production gradually returns. The geopolitical risk premium is likely to keep prices above pre-conflict levels for some time.

In a separate development, President Donald Trump has set an 8 pm ET Tuesday deadline (0000GMT Wednesday) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of US attacks on critical infrastructure if the deadline is not met.