Oslo: As annual maximum snow cover in Norway declines significantly, experts warned that this could create a risk of a roughly 20 terawatt-hour shortfall in hydropower production, while a potential drop in exports may put upward pressure on electricity prices in Europe. Changes in weather patterns due to climate change are causing fluctuations in energy production. Clean energy sources closely linked to weather conditions, particularly solar, wind, and hydropower, are highly affected by this situation.

According to Anadolu Agency, a report by the Norwegian Climate Service Center, titled "Climate in Norway: Knowledge Base for Climate Adaptation," indicates that the country's annual maximum snow cover has decreased significantly. Comparisons between the periods 1901-1930 and 1991-2020 showed that the ski season has shortened by four to seven weeks in many parts of the country. Projections indicate that if greenhouse gas emissions increase, the snow season will shorten further by the end of the century. In this context, the annual maximum snow amount is expected to decline across almost the entire country.

This decline in snowfall is closely tied to energy production. In Norway, which holds half of Europe's hydropower reservoir storage capacity, balances in hydropower generation and exports are shifting. This has been increasing costs, particularly in some regions of Norway and in European countries that import energy from Norway.

Senior engineer Lars Eirik Eilifsen from the Energy and Licensing Department of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate told Anadolu that inflow from snow that melts in the spring is often used both throughout the year and the following winter. Eilifsen said that when snow levels are low, the volume of water from spring snowmelt is also reduced. 'This can lead hydropower producers to conserve water, which may reduce production and contribute to greater price convergence with neighboring markets. The reason for this is that the alternative to hydropower production often is electricity imports from neighboring countries,' Eilifsen noted.

He added that Norway's hydropower system, with large storage and many reservoirs, can handle water fluctuations, relying on both snowmelt and rainfall to maintain supply. 'Based on reservoir levels, snow levels, and expected inflow, producers continuously adjust their production. It is also important to recognize that the Norwegian power supply is not determined by hydropower alone,' he said. Import capacity from neighboring countries is important for the security of supply, he added.

Stressing the difficulty of predicting how variations in exchange from Norway will affect electricity prices, he said: 'All else equal, lower exports from Norway could contribute to higher prices in Europe, but electricity prices are also driven by many other factors.' Eilifsen noted that factors such as electricity demand, gas prices, share of renewable energy, and political conditions can affect prices.

Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate Hydrology Department researcher Tuomo Saloranta also told Anadolu about the impact of declining snow levels on energy production. Saloranta said that the maximum seasonal snow amounts have been diminishing in the last decades in lowland areas, below 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) above sea level. He also noted that Norway's snow levels are at one of their lowest points in at least 20 years, potentially leading to an estimated 20 terawatt-hours drop in energy production compared to normal.