Abu dhabi: When the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on April 28 that it would exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, it cited production capacity, national interest, and an “evolving energy profile” as reasons. The decision came during a significant Gulf crisis involving the United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran, alongside Iran’s parallel conflict with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. To interpret Abu Dhabi’s decision without considering this context misses the broader implications.
According to Anadolu Agency, three explanations for the UAE’s departure are under discussion, each with its own merit. Structurally, the UAE has been constrained by quotas limiting its exports to 3.2 million barrels per day, despite its capacity reaching 4.8 million. Tactically, with Iranian pressure on the Strait of Hormuz affecting Emirati exports, Abu Dhabi has prioritized maximizing its export routes through Fujairah, reducing the feasibility of adhering to OPEC’s production discipline.
Politically, Abu Dhabi expected a unified GCC response to Iranian aggression but was met with division instead. This political dimension is significant, highlighting a systematic issue rather than a temporary disagreement. The regional conflict has affected GCC states unevenly, with the UAE suffering the most from Iran’s missile and drone strikes. In contrast, other states like Oman have faced minimal impact, and Saudi Arabia has redirected its exports to the Red Sea.
The GCC, established in 1981 to counter Iranian threats, has shown no unified stance against Iran’s assaults on its member states. The absence of a coordinated diplomatic, economic, or military response has allowed external powers to exploit divisions within the GCC. The UAE’s exit from OPEC is less about energy policy and more a critique of multilateral frameworks that no longer align with its interests, prompting it to seek closer ties with Washington and Israel.
The GCC’s failure to act as a cohesive bloc benefits Iran and external powers such as Israel, the US, China, and Russia, who find a divided Gulf easier to manage. As the region approaches a post-2026 order, the lesson remains clear: those who do not unite risk losing influence on the global stage. The GCC’s inability to reconcile differences into a common policy is a longstanding issue that continues to challenge the bloc’s effectiveness.