Kyiv: Global nuclear inventory stood at estimated 12,187 warheads in January 2026, according to SIPRI: Eighty-one years after the US conducted the world's first nuclear weapons test, the risks posed by nuclear weapons have become more complex with the rise of artificial intelligence-enabled military systems. The Trinity test, conducted in New Mexico on July 16, 1945, marked the beginning of the atomic age. Less than a month later, the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Today, nine nations possess nuclear weapons.

According to Anadolu Agency, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI) latest findings, the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel continued modernizing and enhancing their nuclear arsenals in 2025. The global inventory stood at an estimated 12,187 warheads in January 2026, including 9,745 in military stockpiles for potential use, according to SIPRI. Around 4,012 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, while between 2,100 and 2,200 deployed warheads were maintained on high operational alert aboard ballistic missiles, the think-tank added.

John Erath, senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, emphasized the current situation differs from the Cold War, when nuclear competition was dominated by the US and the Soviet Union. "It's not exactly the same as during the Cold War," he noted. "Then you had two blocs led by a superpower which had thousands and thousands of nuclear weapons. Now there are nine nuclear states."

China is expanding its arsenal faster than any other nuclear-armed country, according to SIPRI, which estimates that Beijing possesses around 620 warheads. "If it's a race, there's only one person running, and that's China," Erath remarked. He further warned that China's buildup is increasing pressure in Washington for the US to expand its own arsenal, potentially creating a three-way arms competition.

Nuclear-armed states are increasingly investing in military AI. A SIPRI study published in 2025 warned that AI could affect nuclear escalation even when it is used outside nuclear weapon systems. AI-enabled decision-support systems can rapidly process information from satellites, sensors, databases, and open sources. They may improve situational awareness, but they can also produce flawed, biased, or opaque assessments. The SIPRI study identified automation bias - the tendency to accept a system's output without sufficient scrutiny - as a major concern.

These technological developments are unfolding as nuclear arms control mechanisms deteriorate. The New START treaty, the final major agreement limiting US and Russian strategic nuclear forces, expired in February 2026. Erath stated that Washington and Moscow should continue observing their numerical limits and restore information exchanges and transparency mechanisms. He added that any future arms control framework would eventually need to include China.