Istanbul (aa): As the war in Sudan enters its fourth year, it has moved beyond a limited internal conflict, highlighting a broader struggle for resources and external influence. The conflict's repercussions on regional security, particularly in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, are now assessed with clearer indicators than those available during the first two years. The war's impact on the Sahel-Sahara region became evident early on, shaped by the conflict dynamics, military operations, troop mobilizations, and supply lines near the Darfur region. Cross-border tribal ties involving neighbors like eastern Libya, Chad, Niger, and Mali have also compounded the situation.
According to Anadolu Agency, the Sudan war crisis has followed a rare trajectory, progressing through all stages from dormancy to eruption and escalation, eventually entering a phase of repercussions. These consequences affect national sovereignty and social cohesion and pose threats to regional stability across the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and Red Sea security. This is unprecedented in Sudan's conflict history, as the fallout threatens international peace and security in a short transition time between stages.
Sudan's security governance faces a multifaceted conspiracy intersecting operational, diplomatic, economic, humanitarian, and media dimensions. Insecure borders and foreign interference, including weapons and mercenaries, compound locals' plight. Key strategic considerations in crisis management include adopting an integrated approach across the vast theater of war, sustaining popular resistance momentum, ensuring military unity during the "Dignity War," and building strong alliances with countries like Trkiye, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Russia, and China.
The war has heightened threat perceptions, leading to the establishment of a security group and coordination council among Arab and African littoral states, aiming to create a distinct security identity for the Red Sea. However, the regional escalation near Kurmuk, bordering Ethiopia, raises questions about its tactical or strategic intent.
The war's objectives include impacting the core of regional security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, paving the way for international intervention, and establishing grounds to refer Sudan's case to the African Union and the UN Security Council. Media narratives are shifting, framing the conflict as a regional and international security threat, diverting attention from UAE-Israeli activities near Bab el-Mandeb Strait and slowing partition and recognition agendas.
The humanitarian situation worsens as military operations escalate in Kordofan, Darfur, and parts of the Blue Nile region. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) employ chaos and fear, weaponizing civilian suffering to call for international intervention. Meanwhile, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) focus on stabilization to support internally displaced persons' return, particularly in Egypt, housing many Sudanese refugees.
Future scenarios include defeating the insurgency through an integrated approach, leading to the militia's dismantling. A protracted war followed by fragile peace could replicate the Libyan model, while diminishing proxies and increasing principals' roles might pave the way for a regional deal to resolve the conflict and protect national interests.
In conclusion, while wars threaten, they also offer opportunities for learning and rebuilding. Sudan's situation could follow this path, provided development principles and crisis management dynamics are considered.