Chicago: Corn prices have surged to $5.2425 per bushel in global markets, achieving their highest level in three years as the El Nino weather event, dry conditions, and geopolitical tensions arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to impact the agricultural sector.
According to Anadolu Agency, the price of corn, which last peaked at $5.2450 on July 31, 2023, has increased by over 11% since the end of July and more than 17% since the end of December 2025. The price has since stabilized at around $5.18 per bushel. Concerns over crop yields in the United States have heightened expectations of tighter supplies, pushing corn prices higher. Additionally, an increase in U.S. corn exports has contributed to the price surge.
The hot and dry weather in some U.S. corn-producing regions, coupled with adverse conditions in Europe and ongoing disruptions in grain shipments from Ukraine, has raised alarms over the global corn supply. The American Midwest's corn harvest fell short of expectations, while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impeded grain exports due to attacks on shipping routes.
Weather conditions threaten production, and geopolitical disruptions pose risks to crop deliveries. With energy and fertilizer costs already elevated, the capacity to mitigate additional supply shocks is limited. Meanwhile, reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and diminishing demand for the U.S. dollar are further driving up commodity prices.
Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodities expert, told Anadolu that El Nino's impact became noticeable in June, particularly in South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia, with slightly lesser effects in the U.S. and Europe. He noted significant concerns over declining corn yields in Brazil, the U.S., and Southeast Asia.
Ergezen highlighted that rising oil prices have also affected corn prices, as demand for corn used in biodiesel production increases when oil prices rise. Approximately 60% of global corn production is allocated for industrial purposes. The combined effects of El Nino and high oil prices have played a crucial role in pushing corn prices upward.
El Nino is expected to persist until early next year, and if oil prices remain elevated, further increases in corn prices are anticipated. "As long as oil prices don't decline and there isn't a lasting peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, I don't expect a deep pullback in corn prices," Ergezen added.