Washington:Rising fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran could undermine Republican prospects in the November 3 midterm elections, as US consumers bear a growing share of the global financial burden.

According to Anadolu Agency – English, Brent crude, which traded at $72.48 per barrel before the conflict began, climbed above $126 following the outbreak of hostilities. The international benchmark ended the week through October 30 at $113.43 per barrel, marking an increase of approximately 56.5% from pre-war levels.

Rising crude prices have also pushed up fuel costs across the US. The American Automobile Association (AAA) reports that average gasoline prices climbed from approximately $2.98 per gallon before the war to $4.17 as of November 1, representing an increase of nearly 40%. An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates that the oil shock stemming from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has imposed an additional $468 billion in fuel costs on consumers worldwide, with the US accounting for approximately $160 billion, or nearly one-third of the total.

A survey published by the US-based Pew Research Center on October 30 shows that 74% of Americans are highly concerned about gasoline and energy prices, up from 60% in July and 43% in January. Mounting energy costs and growing public concern over fuel prices are intensifying pressure on US President Donald Trump's administration ahead of the midterm elections, particularly given his repeated pledges to lower energy prices. The situation has also fueled debate over what measures Washington could take to bring oil prices down.

Francesco Sassi, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Oslo, highlighted the challenge to the perception of US energy independence, warning that rising energy costs could undermine the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections. Julien Mathonniere, an oil markets economist at London-based Energy Intelligence Group, stated that the Trump administration's policy tools are better suited to short-term crises than prolonged supply disruptions. He noted that the US had planned to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the releases are still underway.

Paolo Scafetta, a senior petrochemical analyst at ICIS, pointed out the uncertainty dominating oil markets, with crude prices likely to remain volatile despite potential weakness in gasoline futures. He mentioned that the gradual recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war could help ease pressure on gasoline and diesel markets in the coming period.