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Better-Than-Expected Nonfarm Payrolls Put Pressure on Fed to Cut Rates

Washington: Nonfarm payrolls in the US rose 64,000 in November, surpassing estimates, and the unemployment rate increased to its highest level since September 2011 at 4.6%, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts.

According to Anadolu Agency, employment in the US fell by 105,000 in October, while the decline in nonfarm payrolls in August was upwardly revised from 4,000 to 26,000. The rise in employment for September was also downwardly revised from 119,000 to 108,000, indicating a need for the Fed to reassess its monetary policy amidst better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls figures.

Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodity markets expert, highlighted that the Fed is closely monitoring subsequent data following employment figures. He mentioned that the Fed might view the rise in unemployment unfavorably, potentially feeling pressured to cut rates, with additional pressure possibly coming from the US President Donald Trump's administration. Ergezen expects a period of rate cuts to emerge, especially with the anticipated change in the Fed chair.

James Knightley, chief international economist at the ING Group, noted that the ongoing slowdown in the labor market continues to exert pressure on the Fed to cut rates. Knightley referred to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments suggesting payrolls might be overestimated by 60,000 per month, indicating a recognition that the economy is losing jobs. This situation is likely to encourage the Fed's dovish members to advocate for rate cuts, with projections favoring a 25 basis points cut in March and possibly another in June.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, observed that the rise of 121,000 in private payrolls in October and November was beyond expectations. He suggested that this positive trend might prevent the Fed from being overly alarmed by the unemployment rate's increase to 4.6%. Brown indicated that as long as unemployment stabilizes soon, the modest rise might not prompt immediate rate cuts by the FOMC in upcoming meetings.

Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, remarked that while the labor market remains weak, it is not currently at a level that would necessitate the Fed resuming policy easing in January.