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CIA Assessment Warns of Potential Civil War in Israel

Ankara:A classified CIA assessment has warned that Israel may face a civil war or state collapse due to deepening political, economic, and social fractures, as reported on Monday.

According to Anadolu Agency, the assessment, titled 'Fracture From Within,' was prepared by the CIA's Red Cell in August. This unit is responsible for challenging prevailing intelligence assumptions. The report, cited by Drop Site News with information from two US sources familiar with its contents, highlights several pressures facing Israel ahead of its October 27 election.

The report outlines concerns over economic strain, rising military expenditures, and anger surrounding exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews. It also notes escalating violence by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank as contributing to the nation's volatility.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to maintain power are identified as adding to political and constitutional tensions. The report further explains that years of conflict in regions such as Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have exacerbated existing divisions, with soldiers returning from combat often suffering significant psychological trauma.

A major internal issue is the military draft dispute, particularly the resentment stemming from exemptions granted to ultra-Orthodox men during repeated reserve mobilizations. The assessment also warns of Israel's increasing international isolation, including declining support from the United States, which may further destabilize the country.