Trkiye: A strengthening El Nino could push global temperatures higher in the coming months, while a simultaneous positive Indian Ocean Dipole could intensify regional risks, according to Turkish climate scientist Levent Kurnaz.
According to Anadolu Agency, Kurnaz, director of Bogazici University's Climate Change and Policy Research Center, explained that the combination of these climate patterns could lead to record-hot months worldwide. El Nino, a recurring climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, can significantly influence global weather. Similarly, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, where waters in the western Indian Ocean become warmer than normal while those in the east cool down, could exacerbate regional climate impacts.
Recent data from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society revealed that sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region were 2.1 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. This anomaly, classified as a very strong El Nino, suggests that the event could rival major episodes from 1997-98 and 2015-16.
The World Meteorological Organization anticipates that El Nino will become a dominant influence on global climate during the August-October period, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and altering precipitation patterns.
Kurnaz highlighted potential effects, including heightened drought risks in regions such as Indonesia, eastern Australia, and southern Africa, while areas of the eastern Pacific and western South America could experience heavier rainfall and flooding. He also noted that El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. The concurrent development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could magnify these effects, creating sharper regional risks compared to previous periods.
For Trkiye, Kurnaz noted that while El Nino might not cause extreme changes in rainfall, it could contribute to continued temperature anomalies and an extended period of elevated wildfire risk, particularly in the Mediterranean region.