Reykjavik: Nearly 400,000 Icelanders are set to vote on Saturday on whether to restart accession negotiations with the European Union (EU), marking a significant political event more than a decade after talks were initially frozen. The referendum is not about EU membership itself, but rather about authorizing the government to resume negotiations. Any eventual accession agreement would require a second referendum, a factor that might sway voters who are skeptical about full membership but curious about potential terms from Brussels.
According to Anadolu Agency, a recent Maskina poll has shown the "Yes" camp slightly ahead with 51.3%, while 48.7% are opposed. An earlier Gallup survey indicated a tie at 46% for both sides, with 8% of respondents undecided. Conversely, a survey from the European Policy Centre (EPC) suggests that 54% of Icelanders oppose joining the EU, with only 46% in favor.
Iceland initially applied for EU membership in 2009 in the wake of its banking system collapse during the global financial crisis. Negotiations began in 2010 but were suspended three years later when a Eurosceptic government took office. By 2015, Reykjavik informed Brussels that it no longer wished to be considered a candidate. However, the European Commission maintains that Iceland's application is still legally valid, with negotiations merely on hold, as per an EPC report.
Hallgrimur Oddsson, founder and director of the Icelandic EU affairs think tank Evropustraumar, highlighted that Iceland is now approaching the EU issue from a different standpoint. He noted that while Iceland is one of Europe's wealthiest countries by GDP per capita, it still faces high borrowing and living costs, with interest rates at 8% and inflation above 5%, according to the Central Bank of Iceland. Proponents of EU accession argue that adopting the euro could potentially lower borrowing costs and offer greater price stability.
The economic and strategic implications of the referendum are significant. An analysis by Iceland's University Graduates' Union, Viska, has described Iceland as the world's most expensive country in 2026, with prices 84% higher than the European average. Tobias Etzold, a senior adviser at the EPC, noted that joining the EU and Eurozone may alleviate some of the challenges faced by Iceland's economy. He also suggested that closer cooperation with the EU could enhance Iceland's security and strategic options.
A major point of contention in the EU membership debate is the fishing industry, which accounts for nearly 40% of Iceland's exports, according to Statistics Iceland. The EU's Common Fisheries Policy, which manages fishing opportunities and quotas among member states, raises concerns among opponents who fear it would undermine Iceland's ability to manage its stocks independently. The Icelandic government has stated that it would seek special arrangements for fisheries and agriculture during negotiations.
The referendum is occurring in a changed security environment, with Iceland's strategic location near the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap, a critical passage monitored by NATO for Russian maritime activity. Iceland, a founding member of NATO, relies on the alliance and a bilateral agreement with the US for defense. The geopolitical climate, particularly the US's interest in Greenland, has added urgency to the debate over Iceland's EU alignment.
If the "Yes" vote prevails, the government would seek to resume negotiations with Brussels, potentially within months. An agreement would require approval from all 27 EU countries and a subsequent referendum in Iceland. Conversely, a "No" vote would maintain the current relationship, with Iceland remaining part of the European Economic Area and Schengen while possibly deepening cooperation with the EU on other fronts.
Etzold warned that resuming negotiations only to suspend them again could harm bilateral relations. However, regardless of the referendum's outcome, Iceland's ties with the EU and other international partners are expected to continue largely unchanged.
Source: Anadolu Agency