Djibouti: As the escalating US-Israeli conflict with Iran continues with ongoing strikes and counterstrikes, global shipping lanes and energy markets are experiencing significant disruptions. Tehran has already taken measures to limit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil transportation, causing significant ripple effects in energy markets and shipping routes.
According to Anadolu Agency, the focus is now shifting to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a crucial passage at the southern end of the Red Sea. This narrow yet essential maritime corridor is facing potential instability, which could exacerbate existing disruptions. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group recently indicated that the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait could become embroiled in the conflict, highlighting the risks threatening one of the world's busiest maritime corridors.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait serves as a significant link between continents, separating Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea. It connects the Suez Canal to the north with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean to the south, supporting trade between Europe and Asia. Millions of barrels of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and container cargo transit the strait daily, underscoring its status as a critical maritime choke point. The strait's name, 'Gate of Tears,' is derived from its navigation hazards and a legendary earthquake that separated Asia from Africa.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait's significance as an energy chokepoint is underscored by the fact that, in 2023, it saw a daily passage of 9.3 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids. This accounted for nearly 12% of the world's seaborne-traded oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration. However, this flow decreased sharply in 2024 due to Houthi attacks on shipping, which disrupted traffic and affected oil flows through the Suez Canal and Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline.
The Houthi movement, a significant Iran-aligned actor in Yemen, has been targeting Israel and commercial shipping in response to Israel's offensive on Gaza. This campaign forced rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and led to multinational naval protection operations and airstrikes in Yemen. While the situation eased following ceasefire developments in 2025, recent missile strikes toward Israel indicate the group's first direct involvement in the Iran conflict. The Houthi-run government's deputy information minister, Mohammed Mansour, emphasized that strategic locations like the US base in Djibouti fall within their striking range.
Analysts caution that ongoing tensions around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could have far-reaching impacts. Farea Al-Muslimi of Chatham House highlighted the potential consequences of sustained disruptions on shipping costs, oil prices, and the global economy. With oil prices already surging over 50% since the conflict's onset, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened the importance of Red Sea routes for Saudi Arabia's oil exports to Asia. Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council suggested that Houthi actions could influence Saudi Arabia's decisions and potentially reignite the Yemen war, further complicating the Middle Eastern conflict landscape.