Tehran: The escalating US-Israel war with Iran could ripple through global food markets, analysts warn, threatening fertilizer supplies, agricultural production, and food prices. The closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz-a route that carries about a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas and vast volumes of oil-has already sent oil prices soaring to alarming highs.

According to Anadolu Agency, experts say fertilizer exports from the Gulf, food imports into the region, and global agricultural supply chains could also face pressure if the crisis drags on, potentially driving higher food prices worldwide. The Gulf is a major center for fertilizer production and exports, with Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain all depending on the Strait of Hormuz for their shipments. Together, these five accounted for 23% of global ammonia trade and 34% of global urea trade in 2024, as reported by the International Fertilizer Association.

The wider Middle East region made up nearly 30% of global export supply for major fertilizers, including nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, while almost half of all global urea trade also originated there in 2024. A 2025 analysis by analytics firm Kpler estimated that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could tighten fertilizer supply chains by 33%, with sulfur supplies falling by 44% and urea by 30%.

Joseph Glauber, a research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, pointed out that the Gulf's importance goes beyond fertilizer exports, as it is also a major source of LNG, a key feedstock in fertilizer production. He warned that prolonged restrictions on nitrogen-based fertilizer shipments could have a major effect, with major importers such as Brazil, the US, Thailand, and India especially exposed to disruption. Staple crops such as corn, wheat, and rice also depend heavily on fertilizers, making food production vulnerable if supplies tighten.

Richard Volpe, an agricultural economics expert at California Polytechnic State University, emphasized that without a steady supply of high-grade commercial fertilizer, yields would suffer, directly impacting international agricultural trade and food prices globally. He noted that weak harvests could affect future seasons, creating a 'domino effect' that could last 'for an extended period of time.'

The conflict could also hit food supply chains through shipping delays and congestion at ports. Volpe indicated that the first effects would likely be seen in longer waiting times and disrupted trade routes, which could affect food availability worldwide. He mentioned that fertilizer shortages might not immediately impact the current crop cycle, as many farmers have already procured supplies for this season, but the issue could become more pressing in the next planting season.

Glauber suggested that farmers might reduce fertilizer use or switch to crops needing fewer inputs if the conflict persists. Analysts believe the strongest link between the conflict and food prices may ultimately be energy. Volpe highlighted higher energy costs as the most pressing concern for the global food supply chain, citing their 'multiplier effect.' Even if the conflict ended quickly, higher energy costs could still push food prices up within one or two months. Glauber concurred that energy markets are likely to have a bigger effect on retail food prices than fertilizer shortages alone.