Stockholm: Last year more people died than were born in 79% of Sweden's municipalities, local media reported on Monday. While the trend has long been associated mainly with sparsely populated municipalities, it has now spread across large parts of the country, Swedish public broadcaster SVT reported, citing official statistics.

According to Anadolu Agency, at the national level, births still exceeded deaths in 2025, with 97,488 children born compared with 92,212 deaths. However, Sweden's natural population growth is expected to shrink further this year, based on projections by Statistics Sweden. As of 2027, deaths are projected to outnumber births nationwide.

The shift comes as Sweden's fertility rate fell to around 1.4 children per woman in 2025, the lowest level the country has ever seen. A fertility rate of around 2.1 children per woman is generally needed to maintain a stable population over the long term in the absence of migration.

Despite the expected natural population decline, Sweden's overall population is projected to continue growing. Statistics Sweden's main projection estimates that the population could increase from around 10.6 million in 2025 to nearly 12 million by 2075. Migration is expected to be the main factor behind the increase, with more people projected to move to Sweden than leave the country in the coming years, offsetting the gap between births and deaths.

Without net immigration, Sweden's population would shrink, according to Statistics Sweden calculations. The projection also assumes that fertility will gradually recover to around 1.7 children per woman and that life expectancy will continue to rise.