South Sudan: South Sudan is facing mounting fears of a return to civil war as political tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar intensify, leading to violent clashes and high-level arrests of key political and military figures. The latest developments have put the country's fragile 2018 peace agreement at risk, with experts warning that deep mistrust between the two leaders is fueling instability.
According to Anadolu Agency, on Monday, Kiir dismissed three ministers in a Cabinet reshuffle widely seen as linked to the escalating political crisis. The move followed a US evacuation order last week to get non-emergency personnel out of the country, citing heightened security risks and widespread availability of weapons among civilians. Regional leaders, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have stepped in to mediate, calling for an extraordinary summit on Wednesday to address the crisis.
South Sudan, which gained independence in 2011, plunged into civil war two years later. Although the 2018 peace deal between Kiir's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and Machar's Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO) halted major fighting, key reforms - such as the disarmament of armed groups and election preparations - remain stalled.
The latest flare-up began on March 4, when a Nuer militia linked to Machar seized an army base in Nasir, a strategic town near the South Sudan-Ethiopia border. According to the International Crisis Group, Machar accused the army of launching attacks on Feb. 25 in Ulang County, and allegedly assaulting the first vice president's loyalists in the west of the country. The White Army, a militia tied to Machar's Nuer community, later took control of Nasir following clashes with government troops.
Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO)-South Sudan, explained that the violence was triggered by disagreement on the replacement of long-staying soldiers of the South Sudan People's Defense Forces (SSPDF) in Nasir for a period of over ten years. He noted that the White Army resisted the deployment of new SSPDF forces apart from the unified forces, indicating that the SPLM/IO might be supporting the White Army due to their past alliances.
The situation escalated further on Friday when a UN helicopter attempting to evacuate soldiers in Nasir was attacked, leaving at least 27 people dead. Yakani described the recent violence in Nasir county, where a South Sudan People's Defense Force general and a UN peacekeeper were killed, as a demonstration of a clear proxy war between the two leaders.
Meanwhile, in the capital Juba, tensions spiked last week when Kiir ordered the arrest of several of Machar's top allies. Daniel Akech, senior South Sudan analyst at the International Crisis Group, warned that if government forces loyal to President Kiir decide to attack areas where Machar's forces are positioned not far from Juba, the situation could quickly escalate into violence near the capital.
Analysts say a deepening lack of trust between Kiir and Machar is at the heart of South Sudan's ongoing instability. Yakani pointed out that the trend of deficit in trust and confidence began in mid-December 2013 and continues to this day, with the two leaders fully engaged in accusing each other of lacking political will and commitment.
The growing tensions have raised concerns that South Sudan may once again slide into full-scale war. The International Crisis Group warned that the country is slipping toward renewed conflict and political upheaval. Yakani echoed these concerns, urging IGAD leaders to convene an urgent meeting to address the dispute between South Sudanese leaders on the implementation of the 2018 peace agreement.
The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has warned that the surge in violence, escalating political tensions, and instability in Juba threaten to derail the 2018 peace agreement. Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission, emphasized the importance of implementing the provisions of the peace agreement to strengthen institutions and build a foundation for democracy in the country.
Experts say the power-sharing deal has been fraught with problems. Under the agreement, Kiir has the authority to appoint and dismiss officials, but he requires consent from opposition leaders when removing their representatives. Akech noted that since Machar and Kiir formed a government in 2020, the two leaders have not worked together to ensure that key provisions of the 2018 peace agreement are implemented.
Yakani warns that the agreement is now at serious risk of collapse, with the erosion of trust among the parties potentially extending the transitional period further. The arrest of SPLM/IO senior military and security officials has only heightened concerns, with Yakani cautioning that further detentions or arrests of senior SPLA-IO officers could trigger a heavy civil war in the country.