Marinetraffic: The global "shadow fleet" experienced a contraction in April for the first time since December 2025, while oil flows through non-transparent vessels remained elevated.
According to Anadolu Agency, the shadow fleet saw 24 new vessel additions and 37 removals in April, reducing the total number of vessels to 2,793 from 2,806 in March. This monthly change represented a 0.46% decline, marking the first time since October 2025 that removals outpaced additions, when 74 removals resulted in a 1.83% drop. MarineTraffic's analysis suggests that the contraction is not indicative of a long-term shrinkage but is instead a reflection of the fleet's cyclical changes, where designation events, ownership clarifications, or commercial exits temporarily lower the count before new vessels are added.
Oil cargo flows through shadow fleet vessels remained robust, totaling approximately 258 million barrels in April, maintaining the run rate seen since January. Russia continued to be the primary source of crude oil, with 67 million barrels transported via shadow fleet vessels in April, representing about 26% of total origin flows. MarineTraffic noted that the steady monthly volumes from Russia indicate that the fleet continues to fulfill its main commercial role of transporting Russian crude outside the Western-regulated maritime system, despite sanctions and vessel designations.
China's position as a major destination saw a significant drop, with crude cargoes destined for China falling to 28.4 million barrels in April from a peak of 59.7 million barrels in October 2025. This 52% decline suggests a notable shift in behavior among Chinese refiners, banks, or port authorities, likely in response to cumulative sanctions and compliance pressure, MarineTraffic explained. Meanwhile, India received 22.2 million barrels in April, marking its highest level in the past year.
In addition, clean and dirty oil product flows through shadow fleet vessels reached a 12-month high in April, totaling around 4.4 million barrels. Russia-origin product flows surged to 2.8 million barrels, more than doubling the previous month's Russian reading in the products dataset and constituting about 63% of April's total product flow. Iran-origin product flows amounted to 574,000 barrels, adding another layer of sanctions risk to the US Iran sanctions program, MarineTraffic noted.
India emerged as the largest named destination for shadow fleet clean and dirty products in April, receiving 1.55 million barrels, marking the first instance of leading the product destination breakdown in the past year. Among the 24 vessels newly classified as shadow fleet in April, the most prevalent risk marker was the absence of International Group P and I Club coverage, identified in 11 vessels or 46% of the group. Unknown ISM managers and lack of IACS classification were recorded for eight vessels each, while dark ship-to-ship activity was detected in three vessels.
MarineTraffic emphasized that May's product-flow data would be crucial in determining whether April's surge in Russia-origin product flows was front-loaded ahead of new regulatory measures or whether shadow fleet operators have adapted to the latest sanctions environment without significant disruption.