Gaza: Nearly 22 months into its devastating war on Gaza, Israel is pressing forward with policies that experts say are drastically reshaping the enclave's geography, demographics, and political landscape. Analysts argue that Israel's actions reflect a broader strategy to enforce a new order in Gaza, characterized by permanent displacement, depopulation of the north, a severe humanitarian crisis, and indefinite military control over strategic areas.
According to Anadolu Agency, Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at the Defense Studies Department of King's College London, believes Israel envisions two potential outcomes for Gaza, both as sinister as the other. Pinfold stated, "Either the humanitarian situation becomes so dire that other regional powers take over governance in Gaza on Israel's terms (i.e., without getting it to agree to Palestinian statehood) or by concentrating the territory's population along Gaza's southern border, they will inevitably spill over into the Sinai Peninsula and therefore depopulate Gaza."
Since October 2023, Israel has killed more than 59,000 Palestinians in Gaza - most of them women and children - destroying essential infrastructure, collapsing healthcare systems, and leaving the enclave facing starvation and famine.
The latest Israeli evacuation orders target parts of Deir al-Balah, home to tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has expressed deep concern, warning that this move pushes civilians into increasingly desperate conditions and further displacement. "With this latest order, the area of Gaza under displacement orders or within Israeli-militarized zones has risen to 87.8%, leaving 2.1 million civilians squeezed into a fragmented 12% of the Strip, where essential services have collapsed," OCHA said in a recent statement.
Ihab Maharmeh, a policy analyst at Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network, argues that Israel's ultimate objective is the reoccupation of Gaza, resulting in mass Palestinian expulsions. Maharmeh stated, "Israel's policy in the Gaza Strip is clear: to impose a new geographic and demographic reality through a de facto reoccupation marked by direct military control and the establishment of buffer zones that confine Palestinians in ghettos."
Analysts say the Israeli government's plan to relocate Gaza's entire population to a new zone on the ruins of Rafah city serves as a cover for forced displacement of Palestinians. Maharmeh told Anadolu, "Israel is promoting its plan to transfer Palestinians to a so-called 'humanitarian city' for housing 600,000 Palestinians in the southern Gaza Strip as part of a broader strategy to confine them to ghettos in preparation for large-scale forced displacement."
As the food crisis deepens under Israel's blockade, the World Food Program (WFP) warned on Monday that Gaza faces an 'astonishing' hunger crisis. A quarter of the population endures famine-like conditions, and nearly 100,000 women and children suffer from severe acute malnutrition. According to Gaza's Health Ministry, at least 86 people, including 76 children, have died from hunger and dehydration since October 2023.
Maharmeh emphasized that Israel deliberately uses starvation as a method in its genocidal strategy to forcibly displace Palestinians. "This began with the denial of adequate humanitarian aid, escalated with the targeting and banning of international relief agencies - such as UNRWA and the World Central Kitchen - and evolved into the creation of a deadly aid distribution system through the GHF, and is now culminating in a full-scale starvation campaign that serves Israel's plan for the forced transfer of Palestinians," he explained.
Experts further suggest that chaos itself forms a core component of Israel's long-term strategy in Gaza. Pinfold noted, "It seems increasingly clear that chaos is Israel's 'day after' plan. This is because Israel's leaders want to make Gaza ungovernable and unlivable - they see this as a way to pressure Hamas to end the war and/or relinquish its rule over Gaza. But more ominously, it is also a strategy to practice ethnic cleansing by stealth in Gaza."