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Turkish Economic Growth Projected to Remain Resilient Through 2027

Brussels: The European Commission announced that Turkish economic growth is expected to remain resilient, with a projected expansion of 3.4% this year and in 2026, and an anticipated increase to 4% in 2027. Despite a tight monetary policy stance, domestic demand showed robust performance in the first half of 2025. According to Anadolu Agency, the European Commission's European Economic Forecast Autumn 2025 report highlighted that Turkey's economy grew by 4.8% annually in the second quarter of the year. Household consumption and investment growth recorded annual rates of 5.1% and 8.8%, respectively. The economic performance is anticipated to remain largely unchanged in the third quarter. Growth is expected to slow to 3.4% by the end of this year, maintain resilience next year, and rise to 4% in 2027, with household consumption as the primary growth driver. The report indicated that investments in Turkey are expected to increase steadily as financial conditions and the economic outlook improve. Meanwhile, the trade and current account deficits are projected to remain generally stable. Employment growth is also projected to gradually accelerate, with unemployment remaining largely unchanged at 8.6% between 2025 and 2027. The disinflation process remains a priority for Turkish policymakers, with annual inflation in September rising to 33.3%. The report noted that factors such as rising food prices due to adverse weather impacts on agriculture, resilient service inflation, and increasing gold prices have contributed to upward inflationary pressures. A tight monetary policy stance supports the fight against inflation, with the commission expecting annual inflation to decrease slowly to an average of 24.8% in 2026 and 17.7% in 2027. The report acknowledged that the Turkish economy has successfully navigated recent geopolitical and domestic uncertainties. Although internal political tensions in the spring caused financial turmoil, markets stabilized quickly. Despite the volatile political situation and high domestic a nd external risks, the report emphasized that Turkey's recent sound policy track record, reduced economic imbalances, and increased buffers might help withstand these challenges if a firm orthodox economic policy stance is maintained. For the entire EU economy, the report noted that while economic growth exceeded expectations from January to September, it is estimated to be 1.4% for the entire year and in 2026, with an increase to 1.7% in 2027.