Washington: US President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning that the United States would withdraw all forms of diplomatic, economic, and military support to Iraq if former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is reinstated as the country's leader. Trump has criticized Maliki's previous tenure, claiming his policies led Iraq into poverty and chaos.
According to Anadolu Agency, Trump's intervention could potentially prevent Maliki from securing a third term, although the political deadlock in Baghdad remains unresolved. Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Omar Al-Nidawi highlighted that Iran's influence in Iraq is deeply entrenched and cannot be significantly reduced by targeting a single political figure. Al-Nidawi noted that Washington possesses various tools and could impose aggressive sanctions on individuals and parties linked to Iranian interests, raising concerns about restricting Iraqi access to US dollars generated from oil exports.
Chatham House researcher Hayder Al-Shakeri warned of a possible nationalist backlash in Iraq, suggesting that Trump's overt pressure might strengthen Iranian-linked actors by providing a sovereignty narrative. Al-Shakeri emphasized that such pressure could harden positions rather than diminish Iran's influence in Baghdad.
International Crisis Group senior Iraq analyst Lahib Higel indicated that Maliki's third term could carry significant costs for Iraq's political elites, particularly Shia parties. Higel anticipates short-term measures like individualized sanctions and restrictions on US dollar access if Maliki or another undesired candidate is chosen, complicating the efforts of the sitting prime minister. Higel also mentioned the possibility of Washington revisiting the strategic framework agreement with Iraq in the long term.
Ali Mamouri, a research assistant at Deakin University, stated that the US demands clarity from Iraq, moving away from its historical balance between Washington and Tehran. Mamouri described Trump's warning as a strategic signal to Iraq's political class, marking an end to the period of strategic ambiguity. He added that Iraq's future leadership would be crucial in determining the country's position in the ongoing regional conflict.