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WTO Raises Global Trade Growth Forecast for 2023, Warns of Pressure in 2026

Geneva: The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its forecast for global trade growth this year to 0.9%, noting concerns that high tariffs imposed by the United States will exert pressure on trade in 2026.

According to Anadolu Agency, the previous WTO report, released after US President Donald Trump's "Independence Day" tariff announcements on April 2, had predicted a contraction of 0.2% in global trade for the current year. This initial forecast was considerably lower than the WTO's earlier estimate of 2.7% growth before the tariffs were enacted.

In its latest update, the WTO revised its forecast for the year, projecting a 0.9% growth instead of a contraction. This positive adjustment is attributed primarily to the US increasing its imports to preempt the effects of the tariffs. In the first half of the year, US import volumes surged by 11% compared to the previous year. A similar pattern was seen in other countries' imports, driven by concerns over potential retaliatory measures.

Despite these developments, WTO economists cautioned that the newly implemented tariffs are expected to decelerate trade in the latter half of this year and into the next. The organization also adjusted its growth forecast for 2026 downwards, from 2.5% to 1.8%.