Ankara: A rapidly strengthening El Nino is raising the prospect of a historic climate event later this year, potentially reshaping weather patterns across much of the world and bringing heightened risks of drought, flooding, extreme heat, and wildfires.
According to Anadolu Agency, after months of forecasts pointing toward a powerful El Nino, the latest projections have become even more striking. In early June, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced an 80% chance of El Nino developing between June and August, with the phenomenon likely persisting through at least November at a 90% probability. The agency's forecast models indicated at least a moderate event, possibly a strong one. Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported in its mid-August update that El Nino was already present and strengthening, with more than a 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.
More notably, NOAA projected a 69% chance that the October-December period will witness a 'historic' El Nino event, surpassing the strength of previous occurrences dating back to 1950. Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the State University of New York at Albany, indicated that the warning signs have been evident for months, with the developing event repeatedly exceeding expectations. He explained that beginning in April, the event was already surpassing most observed past events, with numerical models pointing toward a strong event at the time. The developing El Nino has also achieved more east Pacific warm-water volume than any El Nino since 1950.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern driven by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Nino, wind patterns weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water to spread eastward toward the Americas. This shift alters atmospheric circulation, affecting weather patterns globally. NOAA's latest assessment indicates a strengthening event, with significant sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies. Westerly wind anomalies and changes in rainfall patterns have emerged, impacting regions differently across the globe.
Roundy noted that the peak intensity of El Nino is expected between November and January, although its effects could extend through the end of the northern winter into spring 2027. The event's impacts vary by region, with some areas experiencing drought and others facing heavy rainfall. Roundy expects plentiful rainfall in Northeast Africa and Argentina, while parts of the US could see very heavy rainfall during December-February. Conversely, regions like Indonesia and the lower Amazon could face drought and an increased risk of forest fires.
The emergence of an exceptionally powerful El Nino comes amidst human-caused climate change, which has already raised global ocean temperatures. Roundy explained that climate change could both strengthen and temper different aspects of El Nino's influence, affecting temperature contrasts and overall impacts. Despite the potential severity of the event, Roundy emphasized that the world is now better prepared to handle the impacts of extreme El Nino events than in the past.