London: Gold and silver have surged to fresh record highs in recent weeks, extending a dramatic rally that began in 2025 and leaving analysts and investment banks struggling to keep up with a fast-moving market. Gold surpassed $4,900 an ounce on Friday, hitting an all-time high of $4,967.48, up around 80% over the past 12 months. Silver's rise has been even more striking, with a 225% increase over the past year, reaching a record high of $99.38 per ounce.
According to Anadolu Agency, the rush into precious metals has been fueled by factors such as tariff threats, geopolitical uncertainty, and the debate over interest rates centered around the Federal Reserve. Analysts highlight the durability of demand, even as prices continue to rise, with modest levels of selling back in both metals contributing to the difficulty in forecasting.
Investment banks have struggled to keep up with the rapidly changing market dynamics. JP Morgan noted the continuous gains in gold prices in 2025 due to trade concerns, reduced demand for the US dollar, and increased central bank buying. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had projected significant price increases for gold in 2026, but these targets are being tested much earlier than expected.
Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council indicated that structural drivers, such as geopolitical uncertainty and central bank diversification, continue to underpin gold prices. Silver's outlook, on the other hand, is more closely tied to the industrial cycle and energy-transition investment.
Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING Bank, emphasized the role of central bank demand, Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical anxiety in sustaining precious metals' demand. She also noted the strengthening supply dynamics, particularly in silver, where deficits have been compounded over several years.
Silver's standout performance is attributed to tightening physical conditions and surging industrial consumption. Manthey highlighted the importance of silver's industrial demand, which is driven by sectors such as solar manufacturing, semiconductors, electronics, and electric vehicles.
China's growing demand for silver has further amplified momentum in the market. Cavatoni pointed out that while China's purchases impact the silver market significantly, gold's demand story is broader and more globally diversified.
With both metals continuing to set records, the rally reflects a global market recalibrating around a more fragile geopolitical order, a shifting monetary outlook, and tightening physical supply. These forces may keep precious metals elevated well beyond 2026.