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Trkiye Targets $2.2 Trillion Economy with Single-Digit Inflation by 2029

Ankara: Trkiye aims to expand its economy to $2.2 trillion, create 2.1 million additional jobs, and bring inflation back to single digits by the end of 2029, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz announced Wednesday. Yilmaz, along with Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and Presidency of Strategy and Budget head Ibrahim Senel, addressed foreign media at the Presidential Complex in Ankara during the '2027-2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP) International Media Meeting.'

According to Anadolu Agency, the MTP, revised annually in alignment with Trkiye's development plans, outlines macroeconomic projections, policy priorities, and the framework for public revenue, expenditure, and borrowing. The program also provides the foundation for preparing the annual budget and defining the reform agenda for upcoming years.

Yilmaz emphasized that the government intends to build on the macroeconomic gains achieved since 2023, aiming to transform this stability into sustainable growth and productivity. The projected growth rate is expected to gradually increase from 3.3% in 2026 to 5% by the program's conclusion in 2029. The government focuses on sustainable growth that enhances production capacity and productivity without causing inflationary pressure.

The program anticipates significant economic growth, with national income projected to exceed $1.8 trillion and per-capita income surpassing $20,000 by 2026. By 2029, the nominal GDP is expected to reach $2.2 trillion, with per-capita income around $25,000 and combined exports of goods and services rising to $450 billion.

Inflation is anticipated to return to single digits by 2029, following a gradual decrease from 28.4% in 2026 to 13.5% in 2028. Yilmaz noted that inflation had peaked at 75.5% in May 2024 but has since been on a downward trend, although regional conflicts have temporarily impacted this progress.

The Turkish central bank reported that the war had added approximately 7 percentage points to inflation. Yilmaz expressed optimism that the downward trend in inflation would become more pronounced, supported by a coordinated policy framework.

Global economic challenges, such as weaker external demand and higher commodity prices, prompted a revision of several projections for 2026, including a lower growth forecast for Trkiye's main trading partners. The assumed average Brent crude price has been adjusted upwards, and global inflation is now projected at 4.7%.

Trkiye's trade deficit is expected at $105 billion in 2026, influenced by a revised energy import bill. However, Yilmaz maintained that the deterioration is temporary, with expectations for the deficit to fall below 2% next year.

Confidence in the Turkish lira has increased, with the share of lira deposits nearly doubling over the past three years. Gross reserves have risen significantly, and the country's credit default swap premium has decreased, reducing borrowing costs.

Trkiye plans to generate 2.1 million additional jobs through a combination of growth, labor market reforms, and active labor market policies, aiming to reduce unemployment to below 8%. Employment policies will focus on vocational training and technological adaptation, supporting young people, women, and individuals with disabilities.

The country is also preparing to host COP31, working towards long-term carbon-free economy targets. Yilmaz highlighted that progress in the green economy would strengthen macroeconomic stability by reducing the current account deficit and enhancing domestic capacity.

In terms of international relations, Trkiye will continue expanding trade with Asia, particularly Japan, as part of its market-diversification strategy. Yilmaz emphasized the importance of maintaining relations based on mutual benefit, considering not only trade in goods but also services, tourism, financial investment, and foreign direct investment.