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Trump’s Return Poses Questions for US-China Relations Amid New Administration.

Washington: The incoming administration of Donald Trump presents a potential opportunity for easing trade tensions between the United States and China. However, Trump's appointment of two prominent China hawks suggests that tensions may persist, as experts have indicated to Anadolu Agency. According to Anadolu Agency, Trump's first term was marked by aggressive tariffs and bans on technology transfers that caught Beijing by surprise. This time, China appears more prepared, having bolstered its domestic tech capabilities and expanded its export routes. Jeffrey Tucker, president of the US-based Brownstone Institute, believes a trade war is unlikely but anticipates increased tariffs on Chinese imports to the US. Trump's transactional 'deal-making' style previously led to raised tariffs on Chinese imports, with China's economy striving to find common ground. Currently, US-China bilateral trade stands at approximately $560 billion, predominantly favoring Chinese exports to the US. Tucker notes that Trump's tarif f strategy serves dual purposes: protecting domestic industries and generating revenue. However, he acknowledges the contradiction in these goals, as tariffs must be balanced to allow continued trade. Tucker anticipates Trump might seek to renew a deal similar to the 2019 agreement, which required China to purchase US agricultural products. Yet, he points out that China's lack of demand for US wheat, soy, and corn could be a major hurdle. China, meanwhile, has long been preparing for potential trade tensions, according to Hong Kong-based international strategist Andrew KP Leung. Leung highlights China's growth in high-tech chip self-reliance, a shift towards services and consumption, and market expansion in the Global South. He suggests that while Trump's tariffs could disrupt the global economy, they might also pave the way for growth if the Ukraine conflict ends under Trump's administration. In Beijing, Wang Zaibang, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute, expresses skepticism about Trump's willingness t o end the trade war. Wang indicates that China will leverage its comparative advantages to counteract US tariffs through measures like import quotas and export licenses. He argues that the trade war has accelerated China's industrial restructuring and technological self-reliance. Andrea Ghiselli, head of research at the ChinaMed Project, suggests that China sees no reason to hold back this time and is prepared to respond firmly to US trade measures. While China may turn to the Global South, Ghiselli notes that these countries cannot absorb Chinese goods to the same extent as developed economies. The potential end of the Ukraine war, predicted by Trump, may alter global dynamics. Hong Kong-based strategist Leung suggests that Trump's reduced focus on Europe might lead to a more accommodating stance toward China, while Ghiselli warns of uncertain impacts on Sino-European relations. Tucker foresees significant strain on the US-NATO relationship under Trump, predicting a shift toward engagement with BRICS nati ons. He suggests that Trump's foreign policy will prioritize trade with these countries while downplaying NATO's significance. Finally, Ghiselli emphasizes that future trade deals with China will heavily depend on Trump's advisors. The recent appointments of Mike Waltz as national security advisor and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State are expected to intensify US actions against China, according to Princeton University researcher Kyle Chan. Chan anticipates China's defensive response will focus on minimizing fallout and strengthening ties with Asian and European nations.