Ankara:Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf recently stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until seven conditions outlined in the Islamabad memorandum are met. Despite this assertion, data indicates that oil shipments continue through the strait, albeit at reduced levels compared to pre-war figures.

According to Anadolu Agency, Kpler, a maritime intelligence firm, reported that non-Iranian crude and condensate exports from the Middle East Gulf region amounted to at least 16.5 million barrels per day from September 1 to 28. Of these, 60% passed through Hormuz, with the remainder exported from other exits such as the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea. While the strait remains a vital route, current flows are over a quarter below their pre-war levels, highlighting ongoing disruptions.

Windward, another maritime intelligence firm, noted a significant drop in visible ship passages, with only 55 AIS-visible transits recorded during September 16-23. This figure represents a 94% decline from pre-war benchmarks. However, the use of satellite detections suggests that many ships transit with their Automatic Identification System transmitters off, obscuring the actual number of passages.

In addition to regular shipments, a shuttle trade has developed, with tankers transferring oil in the Gulf of Oman. While this method helps maintain exports, it complicates tracking and does not equate to the actual volume of oil crossing Hormuz.

Kpler also highlighted the logistical challenges and limitations of bypass routes like Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah. These routes offer alternatives but are constrained by pipeline and terminal capacities, necessitating further infrastructure improvements to increase exports effectively.