Ankara:World Trade Organization: The World Trade Organization (WTO) has increased its 2026 forecast for global goods trade growth to 3.9%, up from a previous estimate of 1.9%. This adjustment comes as demand linked to artificial intelligence investments offsets disruptions caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict.

According to Anadolu Agency, the WTO has also revised its services trade growth projection, lowering it to 3.3% from an earlier forecast of 4.8%, as outlined in its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report. Despite disruptions to energy, fertilizer, and transport markets, global merchandise trade volumes grew by 3.5% in the first half of 2026, surpassing expectations.

AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors and servers, saw a significant increase in trade, rising by 67% year-on-year and contributing to 47% of global merchandise trade growth during this period. The WTO highlighted that supply chains have shown resilience by adapting through alternative suppliers and transport routes, maintaining trade flows.

The report noted a substantial decline in Middle Eastern crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports, which fell by 24% and 47% year-on-year, respectively, in the first half of the year. However, increased shipments from other suppliers mitigated the global export decline to 6% for crude oil and 1% for LNG. Fertilizer markets adjusted similarly, with global container throughput rising by 3.9% year-on-year from early 2026 to mid-July.

The WTO projects merchandise trade will grow by 4.1% in 2027, with services trade expanding by 6.4%. Despite these gains, the organization cautioned that the benefits of resilient goods trade and AI investments are not evenly distributed, with some regions and the services sector more vulnerable to conflict impacts.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the importance of a unified global economy and a rules-based trading system for maintaining essential goods supplies during disruptions. She noted that while some economies have been more severely affected, access to emerging opportunities like AI remains unequal, highlighting the need for the trading system to absorb shocks and reduce disparities to keep opportunities accessible to all.